It's time to create new mechanisms of financing for real estate in the country, said the Director of Supervision of the Central Bank (BC), a military tale de Moraes Meirelles. Today, operations depend on the resources of savings books, severance Fund (FGTS) and service of instruments with a lower power of capture, as real estate funds, real estate receivables certificates (CRIs), the mortgage notes (LHs) and the real estate credit (LCIs)-and these resources will be insufficient to meet demand in the coming years.
So far, despite the strong growth of demand, the supply of resources needs of borrowers and builders. The savings books, primary source of credit, apart from having a balance of r $ 320 billion, receive resources from agreements on Wage variation compensation fund (FCVS) and cater well to the demand of the middle class. And the FGTS, facing the tracks of low and medium low income, has substantial liquid assets, close to $ 90 billion. In addition, the banks receive a monthly payment of benefits to about 3 million borrowers with active contracts.
But, while loan operations are growing about 50 percent a year, the savings deposits occur at rates of less than 20%. This year, the growth rate is even lower. It is estimated, therefore, that there is scarcity of resources of Carnets in 2012, as they fear the most pessimistic, or in 2013 or 2014.
The proportion of loans in relation to gross domestic product (GDP), calculates the Director of BC, is expected to reach 6% this year-almost five times more than the percentage of 1.3% registered in 2004. But 6 percent of GDP will still be a modest volume, compared to that of other emerging countries such as Mexico and Chile. It is estimated, in the private sector, that the relationship between the mortgage and the GDP should reach 10% to 11%, until 2015, and may double again until the beginning of the next decade. Only then the Brazil will be closer to Chile, whose mortgage/GDP ratio exceeds 20%.
In Brazil, unlike what occurred in other countries, the real estate credit operates in very secure bases-benefits not undertake more than 30% of the income of the borrowers and, preferably, is adopted the constant amortization system, in which the benefits are decreasing throughout the contract. Banks not only grant credits (i.e. they are originators of transactions), how do you keep these assets until the termination of the contracts.
The issue is to maintain the efficiency of a system in strong growth and that depends on macroeconomic variables. As a military tale said Meirelles, "the Central Bank has been working in close partnership with other regulators and entities representing the real estate sector" to define new mechanisms of fundraising.
But there are obstacles to be removed, such as the rules on the allocation compulsory 65% of the resources of Carnets for operations-call requirement. The banks want to relax the rule, to be able to sell credits to companies and make new securitization credits, in the short term. The requirement would be thus accomplished, but with some lag. And the result would be increased granting of credits with the capabilities of Carnets.
Another possibility is to create new titles, such as covered bonds, a kind of real estate that had good acceptance Certificates in Europe. But, to be placed, these papers would have to pay market rates higher than those of the Carnet, which pays the applicator 6.17% per year more TR. picking up the low rate, banks could borrow at interest from 10% to 12% per year. If the capture is more costly, the borrower will pay more.
For the loans, the fall of the base rate of 12% per annum today to 9% in 2012, would launch new roles and ensure the provision of funding.
Fonte: O Estado de São Paulo